Tuesday, 9 August 2016

The Entoure Shame Metric Tool

The following is an advertorial for the Entoure Foundation, a for-profit political think-tank. 

 

The Entoure Shame Metric Tool

 

Introduction


In your post as political advisor have you ever been involved in the comeback of a disgraced poltician and wondered how to minimise the time they spend out of power?   Just imagine a disgraced politican comes to you and indicates that he/she might like to have another stab at the political limelight. It might be a disgraced former councillor, or a disgraced MP.  It might even be multiply-disgraced former and now not former Minister Liam Fox. This happens all the time, right?  Your job is to work out when exactly enough time has passed for the shame factor to recede by just enough to make a comeback possible.  If you underestimate, the comeback bid will fail and probably end in ignominy for all involved.  If you overestimate then valuable time will be wasted in the political desert and valuable political capital will continue its steady decline.  It's your job to get it just right.  Let's meet the Entoure Shame Metric Tool (ESMT), a system founded on firm science that will surely prove an invaluable tool for the ambitious political advisor.  Contact details and licensing terms are available at the end of the post.

Shame Mechanics  

 

Let's start with the basic mechanics of disgrace and shame.  Each event of disgrace is associated with  an initial shame factor (ISF) that may be attributed at the time of resignation.  Prior to the resignation time, levels of shame typically rise towards a crisis point coincident with a resignation event.  The EMST concerns itself with post-resignation shame levels and takes the ISF as the starting point of the model.  Typically, the worse the disgrace event, the higher the ISF.  Over time, the shame factor associated with the disgrace event reduces from the ISF and eventually approaches the population average.  A critical value is reached some time before the population average is achieved. Any value of shame below the critical value permits a successful comeback.  On the other hand, any value of shame above the threshold will result in a failed comeback.  The ESMT is a complete system that estimates the critical time (tc) that must pass after the resignation event for the associated shame (S) to decay from the initial factor (ISF) down to the critical value (Sc).


David Mellor clung on for longer but his political capital dissipated faster than his shame. Don't let this happen to you.


Entoure Laws of Shame


It's time for the science of shame.  The EMTS computes the dynamics of shame with precise physical models. Just think, global money markets have been tamed, stabilised and simplified by teams of eager PhD physicists and mathematicians.  Methodologies borrowed from the world of physics can be applied with precision to any field of human endeavour.  Do you want access to this risk-free power?  Read on for some applied science.  Of course it is hard to comprehend - intellectual breakthroughs of this magnitude usually are.

It seems natural that the intantaneous rate of shame reduction is linear with the shame value itself.  Immediately prior to the resignation event there might be "journalists" following the shamed figure around, perhaps camping outside their house.  Analysis of photographer and newspaper headline count demonstrates that this quickly dissipates to zero over a matter of days, suggesting that high levels of shame result in high rates of shame reduction.  In contrast, towards the end of the shame period lingering feelings of doubt and antipathy remain in the mind of the average voter.  This can take weeks, if not months, to shift.  It seems safe to say that rates of shame reduction are low when the shame itself is relatively low.  A linear relationship between shame and shame reduction rate is amply supported by the evidence.

Entoure's First Law of Shame states that the instantaneous rate of shame reduction (dS/dt) is linear in shame (S),

dS/dt = - γ x S,

where γ denotes the rate of decay of shame.

Entoure's Second Law of Shame follows the First Law by integrating S with respect to time and applying the initial condition immediately after the resignation event,

S(t) = ISF x e(-γ x t).

Entoure's Third Law of Shame reposes the Second Law in terms of tc,

tc = -ln(Sc/ISF)/γ.

The Entoure Shame Metric Tool


Given estimates for γ, Sc and ISF, the value of tc may be readily computed with sophisticated software utilising the latest random number techniques. The ESMT is a complete software system that provides case-by-case estimates for γ, Sc, and ISF.  The package comes complete with advanced software technology required to accurately solve the Third Law.  Hundreds of disgrace events have been used to callibrate and test the system.

 

Estimation of ISF


The value of ISF may be estimated by analysing immediate press reaction to the disgrace event.  A catalogue of thousands of disgrace events allows the value of ISF to be predicted as a multi-variate function of observables such as paparazzi magnitude, column inches, headline font size, time separation from UK's so-called "silly" season, and the temporal interference with the previous and next disgrace event.

 

Estimation of γ


For short times after the disgrace event the Second Law may be linearised in time without loss of accuracy.

S(Limit: t→ 0) = ISF * (1 - γ * t)

Key signifiers in the first days after a disgrace event, such as decline in paparazzi magnitude and increase in offered directorships, act as trackers of shame magnitude.  Assuming an ergodic process, a weighted average of these reference phenomena reveals an estimate for γ.  Millions of disgrace events have been used to verify the validity of the model.

 

Estimation of Sc


By analysing billions of discrete disgrace events it is possible to place an estimate on the lower bound on Sc, the critical shame value, for any disgrace event.  

Licensing


The EMST is available for licensing today.  Packages start for as little as £100,000.  Further applications include prisoner parole approximation.  Please contact the switchboard at HMP Barlinnie and leave a message for Terry.



6 comments:

  1. I was gonna buy one, but then I realised that there wasn't a facility to measure the barefacedness of those who accept seats in the Lords from where they can practise their shamefulness. And to what extent does that reflect on the participant, the prime minister who orders it, and the monarch who approves it.

    How can one calculate the level of shame for the likes of the Noble Lord Mandelson, who not only came back after disgrace, but came back a second time from the House of Lords and as deputy prime minister?

    I'm sorry to point out the flaws in your money making scheme, and I accept that the level of audacity shown by Mandy, Brown and Her majesty on that occasion surpassed all previously known events of its kind. However, what can be done once, can be done again!

    I'm sure with a little more research you'll find away of correcting the glitch.

    As a consolation, and in order that you won't have to go out and work for a living, I shall order one of your robots.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Just listen to the latest user feedback:

      "This software told me to move to Wales and look what happened! They even take cash payments!" - Neil Cameltoe

      "Timed my return to perfection. Everywhere I go, it comes too." - Lee M Fox

      "I bought this on expenses and it worked out perfectly" - Denis MacShame

      "Although I'm dead, it's good to know that 2023 will be a big year for me" - John Perfumeau

      "No matter how big the crisis, this software always told me what I want to hear" - Pete M Andelson

      "I opted to stay at home with the free sex robot" - Tim Yoyo.

      "Worth every penny. Get it now while stocks last" - Jerry Entoure (no relation)





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  2. OK OK OK... I'll have one, with the robot on the side... as it were¬!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Excellent. That's the last copy shifted. Had some complaints about acid leakage so be careful with the freebie. What's that you say? No, I think you'll find a comment on a blog is legally binding. Where's my money???????

      Delete
  3. Munguin says that the Czech is in the post, although it may be a Swede... you can never tell with him!

    Jeeez, the robot leaks acid? What the actual...?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Promises about sealant were not honoured. Just, you know, be a bit careful. This is highly experimental technology. Prompt payment is a turnip for the books.

      Delete

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